Project R-9391

Development of a method for threat analysis in the context of the risk of emergence or re-emergence of infectious animal diseases (Research)

Emerging and re-emerging animal diseases present obvious detrimental impacts on animal health to broader economic implications in terms of the lost revenues and wider societal costs resulting from disease outbreaks. Accurate prediction of the risk of emergences will have direct and indirect favourable effects on animal health and their related industries. In addition, over the past decades most of the emergent infectious agents affecting humans are zoonotic. Accuracy of risk prediction can increase when different data streams and models are combined. Therefore, MORISKIN will be built as a flexible framework, which can integrate several data streams and combine different models to provide the risk of disease entry, in space and time, adjusting the risk to transmissibility pathway and, if applicable, susceptibility profile of the animals present in defined areas. The framework of the prototype will be modular and generic, to be scalable to different diseases, including to new diseases. MORISKIN will also provide information regarding feasibility and methodologies through close collaboration with users and systematic literature review of techniques and models. A user needs' survey will gain necessary information to apprehend the sustainability of the tool, in term of data accessibility and user requirements and constraints. Cases studies, based on historical data and real-time data, will be used to test the framework and provide recommendations to use it efficiently and to adapt it to other diseases. MORISKIN will therefore offer an original alternative to apprehend the risk of entry of exotic and emerging diseases from countries in direct or indirect contact with Belgium ensuring to design targeted strategy of surveillance.

01 January 2019 - 30 April 2021