Project R-2088

Spatio-temporal modeling of infectious diseases (Research)

The specific objectives in this project are: (1) Development of flexible statistical methods for the spatial and spatio-temporal analysis of infectious diseases. This includes (a) the investigation of flexible methods for prevalence estimation and risk factor analysis of infectious diseases, accounting for the different hierarchies in the data and correcting for the possible misclassification of test results using test sensitivity and specificity; (b) the extension of infectious disease models to include the spatial component; (c) the extension of spatio-temporal models for the force of infection to incorporate space-time-varying covariates; (d) study the impact of missing data on the geographical distribution of diseases; (e) investigation of approximate inference based on variational approximation. (2) Describe the temporal and spatial dynamics of infectious diseases using a mathematical model. This includes (a) investigating mathematical models to describe both the spatial and temporal dynamics of the disease; (b) studying the impact of local and global control strategies on the disease dynamics.

01 January 2010 - 31 December 2013