Project R-2897

Modelling epidemics using new statistical methodology based on network data and incomplete data methodology. (Research)

The aim of the project is to develop a suite of advanced, state-of-the-art methodology for epidemiologists and biostatisticians interested in modeling infectious diseases spread from person to person. The key mechanism underlying infectious disease spread is the contacts susceptible people make with infectious people. The individuals in the population can be represented by nodes and the contacts between them as lines connecting the nodes. The collection of nodes and connecting lines is called a contact network. This project aims to collect data on contact networks at home, at school and at work and to develop new statistical methodology that allows for the estimation of key epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number and the generation interval distribution while dealing with complexities as missing data. There are five main objectives: (1) Design and conduct a pilot contact network survey; (2) Develop statistical methodology to estimate the network from egocentric or second generation network data; (3) Augment existing methodology to estimate parameters from observed outbreaks using network theory; (4) Develop methodology to estimate parameters from partially observed outbreaks; (5) Develop an easy-to-use statistical toolbox for epidemiologists interested in the surveillance of epidemics.

01 January 2011 - 31 December 2014